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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

YouGov/Times, 5th May 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the Central region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by YouGov and published in the Times on 5th May.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑2.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓9.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑5.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓0.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑2.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↓3.02
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓7.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑7.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↑0.8
Green 4.37 %  % ↑4.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑3.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↑0.58
Others 6.43 %  % ↓6.43

Our forecast

Central: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 48.61 % 28.72 % 11.60 % 1.85 % 5.60 % 2.67 % 0.95 %
Constituency seats 9
Votes 100,832 59,577 24,072 3,831 11,612 5,545 1,974
1st divisor 10 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 10,083 59,577 24,072 3,831 11,612 5,545 1,974
2nd divisor 10 2 1 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 10,083 29,789 24,072 3,831 11,612 5,545 1,974
3rd divisor 10 3 1 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 10,083 19,859 24,072 3,831 11,612 5,545 1,974
4th divisor 10 3 2 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 10,083 19,859 12,036 3,831 11,612 5,545 1,974
5th divisor 10 4 2 1 1 1 1
5th allocation 10,083 14,894 12,036 3,831 11,612 5,545 1,974
6th divisor 10 5 2 1 1 1 1
6th allocation 10,083 11,915 12,036 3,831 11,612 5,545 1,974
7th divisor 10 5 3 1 1 1 1
7th allocation 10,083 11,915 8,024 3,831 11,612 5,545 1,974
8th divisor 10 6 3 1 1 1 1
8th allocation 10,083 9,930 8,024 3,831 11,612 5,545 1,974
Party Candidate
1 Labour Richard Leonard
2 Labour Monica Lennon
3 Conservative Margaret Mitchell
4 Labour Mark Griffin
5 Labour Elaine Smith
6 Conservative Graham Simpson
7 Labour Craig Martin

Constituencies in Central region

Airdrie & Shotts

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Alex Neil 🛋 12,673 ↑689 57.66 % ↑7.51
Labour Richard Leonard 🎢 6,930 ↓3053 31.53 % ↓10.25
Conservative Eric Holford 1,907 ↑511 8.68 % ↑2.84
Liberal Democrat Louise Young 💸 469 ↓62 2.13 % ↓0.09
SNP HOLD Majority: 5,743 Swing: ↑8.88%

Coatbridge & Chryston

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Fulton MacGregor 9,777 ↑532 46.26 % ↑6.55
Labour Elaine Smith 🛋 🎢 8,280 ↓3648 39.18 % ↓12.06
Conservative Robyn Halbert 1,787 ↑479 8.46 % ↑2.84
Green John Wilson 💸 📃 1,022 ↑526 4.84 % ↑2.71
Liberal Democrat Jenni Lang 💸 267 ↓35 1.26 % ↓0.04
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 1,497 Swing: ↑9.30%

Cumbernauld & Kilsyth

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Jamie Hepburn 🛋 14,377 ↑782 61.66 % ↑7.83
Labour Mark Griffin 📃 🎢 7,036 ↓3100 30.18 % ↓9.96
Conservative Anthony Newman 1,579 ↑423 6.77 % ↑2.19
Liberal Democrat Irene Lang 💸 324 ↓43 1.39 % ↓0.06
SNP HOLD Majority: 7,341 Swing: ↑8.89%

East Kilbride

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Linda Fabiani 🛋 15,185 ↑826 55.62 % ↑7.61
Labour LizAnne Handibode 8,615 ↓3795 31.55 % ↓9.94
Conservative Graham Simpson 🎢 3,088 ↑828 11.31 % ↑3.75
Liberal Democrat Paul McGarry 💸 413 ↓55 1.51 % ↓0.05
SNP HOLD Majority: 6,570 Swing: ↑8.78%

Falkirk East

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Angus MacDonald 🛋 15,124 ↑822 57.11 % ↑6.34
Labour Craig Martin 🎢 7,474 ↓3293 28.22 % ↓10.00
Conservative Callum Laidlaw 3,241 ↑869 12.24 % ↑3.82
Liberal Democrat Austin Reid 💸 642 ↓85 2.42 % ↓0.16
SNP HOLD Majority: 7,650 Swing: ↑8.17%

Falkirk West

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Michael Matheson 🛋 16,504 ↑897 61.65 % ↑6.30
Labour Mandy Telford 6,846 ↓3016 25.57 % ↓9.40
Conservative Alison Harris 2,850 ↑764 10.65 % ↑3.25
Liberal Democrat Gillian Cole-Hamilton 💸 569 ↓75 2.12 % ↓0.16
SNP HOLD Majority: 9,658 Swing: ↑7.85%

Hamilton, Larkhall & Stonehouse

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Christina McKelvie 12,904 ↑702 54.08 % ↑5.95
Labour Margaret McCulloch 📃 6,934 ↓3055 29.06 % ↓10.34
Conservative Margaret Mitchell 📃 🎢 3,480 ↑933 14.58 % ↑4.53
Liberal Democrat Eileen Baxendale 💸 544 ↓72 2.28 % ↓0.15
SNP HOLD Majority: 5,970 Swing: ↑8.14%

Motherwell & Wishaw

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Clare Adamson 10,708 ↑582 51.32 % ↑9.91
Labour John Pentland 🛋 7,437 ↓3276 35.64 % ↓8.17
Conservative Megan Gallacher 2,395 ↑642 11.48 % ↑4.31
Liberal Democrat Yvonne Finlayson 💸 324 ↓43 1.55 % ↑0.05
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 3,271 Swing: ↑9.04%

Uddingston & Bellshill

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Richard Lyle 📃 11,439 ↑622 50.16 % ↑6.88
Labour Michael McMahon 🛋 8,004 ↓3527 35.10 % ↓11.03
Conservative Andrew Morrison 2,892 ↑775 12.68 % ↑4.21
Liberal Democrat Kaitey Blair 💸 468 ↓62 2.05 % ↓0.07
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 3,435 Swing: ↑8.96%