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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

YouGov/Times, 5th May 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the Glasgow region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by YouGov and published in the Times on 5th May.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑2.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓9.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑5.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓0.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑2.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↓3.02
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓7.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑7.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↑0.8
Green 4.37 %  % ↑4.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑3.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↑0.58
Others 6.43 %  % ↓6.43

Our forecast

Glasgow: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 40.56 % 27.65 % 10.82 % 3.21 % 13.45 % 2.58 % 1.72 %
Constituency seats 9
Votes 77,406 52,766 20,639 6,133 25,668 4,931 3,278
1st divisor 10 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 7,741 52,766 20,639 6,133 25,668 4,931 3,278
2nd divisor 10 2 1 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 7,741 26,383 20,639 6,133 25,668 4,931 3,278
3rd divisor 10 3 1 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 7,741 17,589 20,639 6,133 25,668 4,931 3,278
4th divisor 10 3 1 1 2 1 1
4th allocation 7,741 17,589 20,639 6,133 12,834 4,931 3,278
5th divisor 10 3 2 1 2 1 1
5th allocation 7,741 17,589 10,320 6,133 12,834 4,931 3,278
6th divisor 10 4 2 1 2 1 1
6th allocation 7,741 13,192 10,320 6,133 12,834 4,931 3,278
7th divisor 10 5 2 1 2 1 1
7th allocation 7,741 10,553 10,320 6,133 12,834 4,931 3,278
8th divisor 10 5 2 1 3 1 1
8th allocation 7,741 10,553 10,320 6,133 8,556 4,931 3,278
Party Candidate
1 Labour Anas Sarwar
2 Labour Johann Lamont
3 Green Patrick Harvie
4 Conservative Adam Tomkins
5 Labour James Kelly
6 Labour Pauline McNeill
7 Green Zara Kitson

Constituencies in Glasgow region

Glasgow Anniesland

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Bill Kidd 🛋 10,923 ↑594 50.29 % ↑7.10
Labour Bill Butler 7,165 ↓3157 32.99 % ↓10.17
Conservative Adam Tomkins 🎢 2,747 ↑736 12.65 % ↑4.24
Liberal Democrat James Spiers 💸 883 ↓117 4.07 % ↓0.11
SNP HOLD Majority: 3,758 Swing: ↑8.63%

Glasgow Cathcart

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP James Dornan 🛋 12,603 ↑685 52.40 % ↑6.95
Labour Soryia Siddique 7,168 ↓3158 29.80 % ↓9.58
Conservative Kyle Thornton 3,292 ↑882 13.69 % ↑4.50
Liberal Democrat Margot Clark 💸 987 ↓131 4.10 % ↓0.16
SNP HOLD Majority: 5,435 Swing: ↑8.27%

Glasgow Kelvin

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Sandra White 🛋 9,600 ↑522 34.88 % ↓2.72
Green Patrick Harvie 📃 🎢 9,132 ↑4701 33.18 % ↑14.83
Labour Michael Shanks 5,328 ↓2347 19.36 % ↓12.43
Conservative Sheila Mechan 2,411 ↑646 8.76 % ↑1.45
Liberal Democrat Carole Ford 💸 1,054 ↓140 3.83 % ↓1.12
SNP HOLD Majority: 468 Swing: ↓8.78%

Glasgow Maryhill & Springburn

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Bob Doris 📃 9,086 ↑494 49.51 % ↑7.66
Labour Patricia Ferguson 🛋 6,861 ↓3023 37.39 % ↓10.75
Conservative John Anderson 1,669 ↑447 9.10 % ↑3.15
Liberal Democrat James Harrison 💸 736 ↓97 4.01 % ↓0.05
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 2,225 Swing: ↑9.21%

Glasgow Pollok

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Humza Yousaf 📃 10,841 ↑589 52.64 % ↑7.90
Labour Johann Lamont 🛋 🎢 7,549 ↓3326 36.65 % ↓10.81
Conservative Thomas Haddow 1,773 ↑475 8.61 % ↑2.95
Liberal Democrat Isabel Nelson 💸 433 ↓57 2.10 % ↓0.04
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 3,292 Swing: ↑9.36%

Glasgow Provan

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Ivan McKee 8,416 ↑458 50.06 % ↑8.58
Labour Paul Martin 🛋 6,967 ↓3070 41.45 % ↓10.87
Conservative Annie Wells 1,062 ↑285 6.31 % ↑2.26
Liberal Democrat Thomas Coleman 💸 365 ↓48 2.17 % ↑0.02
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 1,449 Swing: ↑9.72%

Glasgow Shettleston

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP John Mason 🛋 10,710 ↑582 55.64 % ↑7.88
Labour Thomas Rannachan 6,624 ↓2918 34.41 % ↓10.59
Conservative Thomas Kerr 1,589 ↑426 8.25 % ↑2.77
Liberal Democrat Giovanni Caccavello 💸 328 ↓43 1.70 % ↓0.05
SNP HOLD Majority: 4,086 Swing: ↑9.23%

Glasgow Southside

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Nicola Sturgeon 🛋 13,014 ↑708 60.68 % ↑6.25
Labour Fariha Thomas 5,524 ↓2433 25.76 % ↓9.44
Conservative Graham Hutchison 2,368 ↑635 11.04 % ↑3.37
Liberal Democrat Kevin Lewsey 💸 540 ↓72 2.52 % ↓0.19
SNP HOLD Majority: 7,490 Swing: ↑7.84%

Rutherglen

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Clare Haughey 11,326 ↑616 47.40 % ↑7.88
Labour James Kelly 🛋 🎢 8,670 ↓3819 36.28 % ↓9.80
Conservative Taylor Muir 2,863 ↑767 11.98 % ↑4.25
Liberal Democrat Robert Brown 💸 1,037 ↓137 4.34 % ↑0.01
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 2,656 Swing: ↑8.84%