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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

YouGov/Times, 5th May 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the Highlands and Islands region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by YouGov and published in the Times on 5th May.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑2.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓9.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑5.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓0.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑2.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↓3.02
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓7.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑7.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↑0.8
Green 4.37 %  % ↑4.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑3.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↑0.58
Others 6.43 %  % ↓6.43

Our forecast

Highlands and Islands: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 41.38 % 9.77 % 17.62 % 13.10 % 9.77 % 7.73 % 0.64 %
Constituency seats 6 2
Votes 79,244 18,701 33,742 25,086 18,706 14,805 1,225
1st divisor 7 1 1 3 1 1 1
1st allocation 11,321 18,701 33,742 8,362 18,706 14,805 1,225
2nd divisor 7 1 2 3 1 1 1
2nd allocation 11,321 18,701 16,871 8,362 18,706 14,805 1,225
3rd divisor 7 1 2 3 2 1 1
3rd allocation 11,321 18,701 16,871 8,362 9,353 14,805 1,225
4th divisor 7 2 2 3 2 1 1
4th allocation 11,321 9,351 16,871 8,362 9,353 14,805 1,225
5th divisor 7 2 3 3 2 1 1
5th allocation 11,321 9,351 11,247 8,362 9,353 14,805 1,225
6th divisor 7 2 3 3 2 2 1
6th allocation 11,321 9,351 11,247 8,362 9,353 7,403 1,225
7th divisor 8 2 3 3 2 2 1
7th allocation 9,906 9,351 11,247 8,362 9,353 7,403 1,225
8th divisor 8 2 4 3 2 2 1
8th allocation 9,906 9,351 8,436 8,362 9,353 7,403 1,225
Party Candidate
1 Conservative Douglas Ross
2 Green John Finnie
3 Labour Rhoda Grant
4 Conservative Edward Mountain
5 UKIP David Coburn
6 SNP Maree Todd
7 Conservative Donald Cameron

Constituencies in Highlands and Islands region

Argyll & Bute

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Michael Russell 🛋 14,160 ↑770 53.58 % ↑3.01
Conservative Donald Cameron 🎢 6,622 ↑1775 25.05 % ↑6.74
Liberal Democrat Alan Reid 2,843 ↓377 10.76 % ↓1.40
Labour Mick Rice 2,805 ↓1236 10.61 % ↓4.65
SNP HOLD Majority: 7,538 Swing: ↓1.87%

Caithness, Sutherland & Ross

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Gail Ross 14,639 ↑796 52.17 % ↑3.77
Liberal Democrat Jamie Stone 5,638 ↓747 20.09 % ↓2.24
Conservative Struan Mackie 4,008 ↑1074 14.28 % ↑4.02
Labour Leah Franchetti 3,775 ↓1663 13.45 % ↓5.56
SNP HOLD Majority: 9,001 Swing: ↑3.00%

Inverness & Nairn

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Fergus Ewing 🛋 17,840 ↑970 57.00 % ↑5.46
Conservative Edward Mountain 🎢 5,187 ↑1390 16.58 % ↑4.98
Labour David Stewart 📃 4,946 ↓2179 15.80 % ↓5.97
Liberal Democrat Carolyn Caddick 3,323 ↓440 10.62 % ↓0.88
SNP HOLD Majority: 12,653 Swing: ↑0.24%

Moray

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Richard Lochhead 🛋 17,784 ↑967 60.36 % ↑1.55
Conservative Douglas Ross 🎢 8,024 ↑2151 27.23 % ↑6.69
Labour Sean Morton 2,485 ↓1095 8.43 % ↓4.09
Liberal Democrat Jamie Paterson 💸 1,172 ↓155 3.98 % ↓0.66
SNP HOLD Majority: 9,760 Swing: ↓2.57%

Na h-Eileanan an Iar

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Alasdair Allan 🛋 8,985 ↑489 71.65 % ↑6.35
Labour Rhoda Grant 📃 🎢 2,585 ↓1139 20.61 % ↓8.01
Conservative Ranald Fraser 769 ↑206 6.13 % ↑1.80
Liberal Democrat Ken MacLeod 💸 201 ↓27 1.61 % ↓0.14
SNP HOLD Majority: 6,400 Swing: ↑7.18%

Orkney Islands

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
Liberal Democrat Liam McArthur 🛋 2,571 ↓341 42.94 % ↑7.22
SNP Donna Heddle 2,162 ↑118 36.10 % ↑11.03
Conservative Jamie Halcro Johnston 937 ↑251 15.65 % ↑7.23
Labour Gerry McGarvey 318 ↓140 5.31 % ↓0.31
Liberal Democrat HOLD Majority: 409 Swing: ↓1.90%

Shetland Islands

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
Liberal Democrat Tavish Scott 🛋 3,940 ↓522 65.45 % ↑17.94
SNP Danus Skene 1,199 ↑65 19.92 % ↑7.84
Conservative Cameron Smith 451 ↑121 7.49 % ↑3.98
Labour Robina Barton 430 ↓190 7.15 % ↑0.55
Liberal Democrat HOLD Majority: 2,741 Swing: ↑5.05%

Skye, Lochaber & Badenoch

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Kate Forbes 15,584 ↑847 50.42 % ↑4.24
Liberal Democrat Angela MacLean 8,602 ↓1140 27.83 % ↓2.69
Conservative Robbie Munro 3,872 ↑1038 12.53 % ↑3.65
Labour Linda Stewart 2,854 ↓1258 9.23 % ↓3.65
SNP HOLD Majority: 6,982 Swing: ↑3.46%