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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

YouGov/Times, 5th May 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the Lothian region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by YouGov and published in the Times on 5th May.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑2.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓9.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑5.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓0.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑2.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↓3.02
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓7.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑7.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↑0.8
Green 4.37 %  % ↑4.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑3.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↑0.58
Others 6.43 %  % ↓6.43

Our forecast

Lothian: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 36.79 % 18.14 % 19.03 % 6.41 % 15.78 % 2.85 % 1.01 %
Constituency seats 7 1 1
Votes 103,339 50,969 53,453 17,996 44,322 8,000 2,847
1st divisor 8 1 2 1 2 1 1
1st allocation 12,917 50,969 26,727 17,996 22,161 8,000 2,847
2nd divisor 8 2 2 1 2 1 1
2nd allocation 12,917 25,485 26,727 17,996 22,161 8,000 2,847
3rd divisor 8 2 3 1 2 1 1
3rd allocation 12,917 25,485 17,818 17,996 22,161 8,000 2,847
4th divisor 8 3 3 1 2 1 1
4th allocation 12,917 16,990 17,818 17,996 22,161 8,000 2,847
5th divisor 8 3 3 1 3 1 1
5th allocation 12,917 16,990 17,818 17,996 14,774 8,000 2,847
6th divisor 8 3 3 2 3 1 1
6th allocation 12,917 16,990 17,818 8,998 14,774 8,000 2,847
7th divisor 8 3 4 2 3 1 1
7th allocation 12,917 16,990 13,363 8,998 14,774 8,000 2,847
8th divisor 8 4 4 2 3 1 1
8th allocation 12,917 12,742 13,363 8,998 14,774 8,000 2,847
Party Candidate
1 Labour Kezia Dugdale
2 Conservative Ruth Davidson
3 Labour Neil Findlay
4 Green Andy Wightman
5 Liberal Democrat Alex Cole-Hamilton
6 Conservative Miles Briggs
7 Labour Sarah Boyack

Constituencies in Lothian region

Almond Valley

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Angela Constance 🛋 17,664 ↑960 61.83 % ↑7.49
Labour Neil Findlay 📃 🎢 7,748 ↓3414 27.12 % ↓9.19
Conservative Stephanie Smith 2,577 ↑691 9.02 % ↑2.88
Liberal Democrat Charles Dundas 💸 579 ↓77 2.03 % ↓0.10
SNP HOLD Majority: 9,916 Swing: ↑8.34%

Edinburgh Central

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
Green Alison Johnstone 📃 9,303 ↑4789 28.16 % ↑12.60
SNP Alison Dickie 8,343 ↑454 25.25 % ↓1.94
Conservative Ruth Davidson 🎢 5,838 ↑1565 17.67 % ↑2.94
Labour Sarah Boyack 📃 🎢 4,943 ↓2178 14.96 % ↓9.58
Liberal Democrat Hannah Bettsworth 4,607 ↓610 13.95 % ↓4.03
Green GAIN from SNP Majority: 960 Swing: ↑7.27%

Edinburgh Eastern

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Ash Denham 15,389 ↑837 53.78 % ↑6.42
Labour Kezia Dugdale 📃 🎢 8,551 ↓3768 29.88 % ↓10.21
Conservative Nick Cook 3,593 ↑963 12.56 % ↑4.00
Liberal Democrat Cos D'Inverno 💸 1,083 ↓144 3.79 % ↓0.20
SNP HOLD Majority: 6,838 Swing: ↑8.32%

Edinburgh Northern & Leith

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Ben Macpherson 12,968 ↑705 45.67 % ↑5.96
Labour Lesley Hinds 8,926 ↓3932 31.43 % ↓10.20
Conservative Iain McGill 4,000 ↑1072 14.09 % ↑4.61
Liberal Democrat Martin Veart 2,504 ↓332 8.82 % ↓0.36
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 4,042 Swing: ↑8.08%

Edinburgh Pentlands

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
Conservative Gordon Lindhurst 12,895 ↑3456 40.89 % ↑9.48
SNP Gordon MacDonald 🛋 11,841 ↑644 37.54 % ↑0.28
Labour Blair Heary 5,549 ↓2444 17.59 % ↓9.01
Liberal Democrat Emma Farthing-Sykes 💸 1,254 ↓166 3.98 % ↓0.75
Conservative GAIN from SNP Majority: 1,054 Swing: ↑4.60%

Edinburgh Southern

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Jim Eadie 🛋 10,519 ↑572 32.00 % ↑2.57
Conservative Miles Briggs 🎢 8,604 ↑2306 26.17 % ↑7.53
Liberal Democrat Pramod Subbaraman 7,326 ↓971 22.29 % ↓2.26
Labour Daniel Johnston 6,424 ↓2830 19.54 % ↓7.84
SNP HOLD Majority: 1,915 Swing: ↓2.48%

Edinburgh Western

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Toni Giugliano 12,653 ↑688 38.68 % ↑2.91
Liberal Democrat Alex Cole-Hamilton 🎢 8,191 ↓1085 25.04 % ↓2.69
Conservative Sandy Batho 6,895 ↑1848 21.08 % ↑5.99
Labour Cat Headley 4,973 ↓2191 15.20 % ↓6.22
SNP HOLD Majority: 4,462 Swing: ↑2.80%

Linlithgow

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Fiona Hyslop 🛋 18,006 ↑979 57.17 % ↑7.36
Labour Angela Boyd Moohan 8,980 ↓3956 28.51 % ↓9.33
Conservative Charles Kennedy 3,615 ↑969 11.48 % ↑3.74
Liberal Democrat Dan Farthing-Sykes 💸 896 ↓119 2.85 % ↓0.12
SNP HOLD Majority: 9,026 Swing: ↑8.35%

Midlothian North & Musselburgh

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Colin Beattie 🛋 14,889 ↑810 54.82 % ↑7.60
Labour Bernard Harkins 7,693 ↓3390 28.33 % ↓8.84
Conservative Jeremy Balfour 3,471 ↑930 12.78 % ↑4.26
Liberal Democrat Jacquie Bell 💸 1,107 ↓147 4.08 % ↓0.13
SNP HOLD Majority: 7,196 Swing: ↑8.22%