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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

YouGov/Times, 5th May 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the Mid Scotland and Fife region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by YouGov and published in the Times on 5th May.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑2.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓9.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑5.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓0.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑2.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↓3.02
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓7.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑7.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↑0.8
Green 4.37 %  % ↑4.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑3.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↑0.58
Others 6.43 %  % ↓6.43

Our forecast

Mid Scotland and Fife: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 40.43 % 17.37 % 21.96 % 6.49 % 8.37 % 4.64 % 0.75 %
Constituency seats 9
Votes 108,683 46,691 59,020 17,436 22,494 12,461 2,007
1st divisor 10 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 10,868 46,691 59,020 17,436 22,494 12,461 2,007
2nd divisor 10 1 2 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 10,868 46,691 29,510 17,436 22,494 12,461 2,007
3rd divisor 10 2 2 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 10,868 23,346 29,510 17,436 22,494 12,461 2,007
4th divisor 10 2 3 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 10,868 23,346 19,673 17,436 22,494 12,461 2,007
5th divisor 10 3 3 1 1 1 1
5th allocation 10,868 15,564 19,673 17,436 22,494 12,461 2,007
6th divisor 10 3 3 1 2 1 1
6th allocation 10,868 15,564 19,673 17,436 11,247 12,461 2,007
7th divisor 10 3 4 1 2 1 1
7th allocation 10,868 15,564 14,755 17,436 11,247 12,461 2,007
8th divisor 10 3 4 2 2 1 1
8th allocation 10,868 15,564 14,755 8,718 11,247 12,461 2,007
Party Candidate
1 Conservative Murdo Fraser
2 Labour Alex Rowley
3 Conservative Liz Smith
4 Labour Claire Baker
5 Green Mark Ruskell
6 Conservative Dean Lockhart
7 Liberal Democrat Willie Rennie

Constituencies in Mid Scotland and Fife region

Clackmannanshire & Dunblane

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Keith Brown 🛋 14,015 ↑762 53.10 % ↑4.76
Labour Craig Miller 6,695 ↓2949 25.37 % ↓9.81
Conservative Alexander Stewart 4,783 ↑1282 18.12 % ↑5.35
Liberal Democrat Christopher McKinlay 💸 899 ↓119 3.41 % ↓0.30
SNP HOLD Majority: 7,320 Swing: ↑7.29%

Cowdenbeath

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Annabelle Ewing 📃 11,293 ↑614 49.31 % ↑7.71
Labour Alex Rowley 🎢 8,279 ↓3647 36.15 % ↓10.31
Conservative Dave Dempsey 2,448 ↑656 10.69 % ↑3.71
Liberal Democrat Bryn Jones 💸 880 ↓117 3.84 % ↓0.04
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 3,014 Swing: ↑9.01%

Dunfermline

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Shirley-Anne Somerville 11,643 ↑633 43.39 % ↑5.81
Labour Cara Hilton 7,233 ↓3187 26.95 % ↓8.61
Liberal Democrat James Calder 5,100 ↓676 19.01 % ↓0.70
Conservative James Reekie 2,859 ↑766 10.66 % ↑3.52
SNP HOLD Majority: 4,410 Swing: ↑7.21%

Kirkcaldy

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP David Torrance 🛋 13,302 ↑723 52.42 % ↑7.18
Labour Claire Baker 🎢 8,606 ↓3791 33.92 % ↓10.67
Conservative Martin Laidlaw 2,742 ↑735 10.81 % ↑3.59
Liberal Democrat Lauren Jones 💸 724 ↓96 2.85 % ↓0.10
SNP HOLD Majority: 4,696 Swing: ↑8.93%

Mid Fife & Glenrothes

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Jenny Gilruth 14,552 ↑791 60.53 % ↑8.23
Labour Kay Morrison 6,645 ↓2928 27.64 % ↓8.74
Conservative Alex Stewart-Clark 2,290 ↑614 9.52 % ↑3.15
Liberal Democrat Jane-Ann Liston 💸 556 ↓74 2.31 % ↓0.08
SNP HOLD Majority: 7,907 Swing: ↑8.48%

North East Fife

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Rod Campbell 11,663 ↑634 39.81 % ↑2.65
Conservative Huw Bell 7,675 ↑2057 26.20 % ↑7.27
Liberal Democrat Willie Rennie 📃 🎢 7,450 ↓987 25.43 % ↓3.00
Labour Rosalind Garton 2,508 ↓1105 8.56 % ↓3.61
SNP HOLD Majority: 3,988 Swing: ↓2.31%

Perthshire North

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP John Swinney 🛋 19,267 ↑1048 58.52 % ↓2.31
Conservative Murdo Fraser 📃 🎢 10,746 ↑2880 32.64 % ↑6.38
Labour Anna McEwan 1,855 ↓817 5.63 % ↓3.29
Liberal Democrat Peter Barrett 💸 1,056 ↓140 3.21 % ↓0.78
SNP HOLD Majority: 8,521 Swing: ↓4.34%

Perthshire South & Kinross-shire

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Roseanna Cunningham 🛋 16,997 ↑924 50.11 % ↓1.38
Conservative Liz Smith 🎢 12,168 ↑3261 35.87 % ↑7.34
Labour Scott Nicholson 2,763 ↓1217 8.15 % ↓4.60
Liberal Democrat Willie Robertson 1,992 ↓264 5.87 % ↓1.36
SNP HOLD Majority: 4,829 Swing: ↓4.36%

Stirling

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Bruce Crawford 🛋 15,712 ↑854 53.20 % ↑4.33
Labour Rebecca Bell 6,378 ↓2810 21.60 % ↓8.62
Conservative Dean Lockhart 🎢 6,298 ↑1688 21.33 % ↑6.17
Liberal Democrat Elisabeth Wilson 💸 1,144 ↓152 3.88 % ↓0.38
SNP HOLD Majority: 9,334 Swing: ↑6.47%