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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

YouGov/Times, 5th May 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the North East region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by YouGov and published in the Times on 5th May.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑2.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓9.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑5.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓0.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑2.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↓3.02
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓7.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑7.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↑0.8
Green 4.37 %  % ↑4.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑3.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↑0.58
Others 6.43 %  % ↓6.43

Our forecast

North East: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 46.85 % 11.33 % 21.80 % 7.50 % 7.67 % 3.89 % 0.96 %
Constituency seats 10
Votes 131,091 31,713 61,000 20,986 21,449 10,876 2,684
1st divisor 11 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 11,917 31,713 61,000 20,986 21,449 10,876 2,684
2nd divisor 11 1 2 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 11,917 31,713 30,500 20,986 21,449 10,876 2,684
3rd divisor 11 2 2 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 11,917 15,857 30,500 20,986 21,449 10,876 2,684
4th divisor 11 2 3 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 11,917 15,857 20,333 20,986 21,449 10,876 2,684
5th divisor 11 2 3 1 2 1 1
5th allocation 11,917 15,857 20,333 20,986 10,725 10,876 2,684
6th divisor 11 2 3 2 2 1 1
6th allocation 11,917 15,857 20,333 10,493 10,725 10,876 2,684
7th divisor 11 2 4 2 2 1 1
7th allocation 11,917 15,857 15,250 10,493 10,725 10,876 2,684
8th divisor 11 3 4 2 2 1 1
8th allocation 11,917 10,571 15,250 10,493 10,725 10,876 2,684
Party Candidate
1 Conservative Alex Johnstone
2 Labour Jenny Marra
3 Conservative Alexander Burnett
4 Green Maggie Chapman
5 Liberal Democrat Mike Rumbles
6 Conservative Ross Thomson
7 Labour Lewis MacDonald

Constituencies in North East region

Aberdeen Central

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Kevin Stewart 🛋 10,636 ↑578 45.26 % ↑5.27
Labour Lewis Macdonald 6,554 ↓2887 27.89 % ↓9.65
Conservative Tom Mason 4,235 ↑1135 18.02 % ↑5.69
Liberal Democrat Liam Bruce 2,074 ↓275 8.83 % ↓0.51
SNP HOLD Majority: 4,082 Swing: ↑7.46%

Aberdeen Donside

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Mark McDonald 📃 15,640 ↑850 61.81 % ↑6.54
Labour Greg Williams 5,286 ↓2329 20.89 % ↓7.57
Conservative Liam Kerr 2,959 ↑793 11.69 % ↑3.60
Liberal Democrat Isobel Davidson 1,418 ↓188 5.60 % ↓0.40
SNP HOLD Majority: 10,354 Swing: ↑7.05%

Aberdeen South & North Kincardine

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Maureen Watt 🛋 12,634 ↑687 47.69 % ↑5.99
Conservative Ross Thomson 🎢 5,544 ↑1486 20.93 % ↑6.77
Liberal Democrat John Waddell 4,410 ↓584 16.65 % ↓0.78
Labour Alison Evison 3,904 ↓1720 14.74 % ↓4.89
SNP HOLD Majority: 7,090 Swing: ↓0.39%

Aberdeenshire East

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Gillian Martin 20,656 ↑1123 65.06 % ↑0.56
Conservative Colin Clark 5,753 ↑1542 18.12 % ↑4.22
Liberal Democrat Christine Jardine 3,742 ↓496 11.79 % ↓2.20
Labour Sarah Flavell 1,599 ↓705 5.04 % ↓2.57
SNP HOLD Majority: 14,903 Swing: ↓1.83%

Aberdeenshire West

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Dennis Robertson 🛋 12,887 ↑701 43.13 % ↑0.58
Conservative Alexander Burnett 🎢 8,234 ↑2207 27.56 % ↑6.51
Liberal Democrat Mike Rumbles 🎢 7,129 ↓945 23.86 % ↓4.34
Labour Sarah Duncan 1,631 ↓718 5.46 % ↓2.74
SNP HOLD Majority: 4,653 Swing: ↓2.96%

Angus North & Mearns

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Mari Evans 14,445 ↑785 53.76 % ↓1.06
Conservative Alex Johnstone 📃 🎢 8,708 ↑2334 32.41 % ↑6.83
Labour John Ruddy 2,194 ↓966 8.16 % ↓4.52
Liberal Democrat Euan Davidson 1,524 ↓202 5.67 % ↓1.26
SNP HOLD Majority: 5,737 Swing: ↓3.95%

Angus South

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Graeme Dey 🛋 17,093 ↑929 60.92 % ↑2.45
Conservative Kirstene Hair 7,625 ↑2044 27.17 % ↑6.98
Labour Joanne McFadden 2,571 ↓1132 9.16 % ↓4.24
Liberal Democrat Clive Sneddon 💸 772 ↓102 2.75 % ↓0.41
SNP HOLD Majority: 9,468 Swing: ↓2.27%

Banffshire & Buchan Coast

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Stewart Stevenson 🛋 17,779 ↑967 66.51 % ↓0.73
Conservative Peter Chapman 6,273 ↑1681 23.47 % ↑5.10
Labour Nathan Morrison 1,834 ↓808 6.86 % ↓3.71
Liberal Democrat David Evans 💸 846 ↓112 3.16 % ↓0.67
SNP HOLD Majority: 11,506 Swing: ↓2.92%

Dundee City East

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Shona Robison 🛋 17,492 ↑951 67.93 % ↑3.70
Labour Richard McCready 4,069 ↓1793 15.80 % ↓6.96
Conservative Bill Bowman 3,484 ↑934 13.53 % ↑3.63
Liberal Democrat Craig Duncan 💸 706 ↓94 2.74 % ↓0.37
SNP HOLD Majority: 13,423 Swing: ↑5.33%

Dundee City West

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Joe Fitzpatrick 🛋 14,899 ↑810 63.69 % ↑6.09
Labour Jenny Marra 📃 🎢 5,334 ↓2350 22.80 % ↓8.61
Conservative Nicola Ross 2,220 ↑595 9.49 % ↑2.85
Liberal Democrat Daniel Coleman 💸 939 ↓124 4.01 % ↓0.34
SNP HOLD Majority: 9,565 Swing: ↑7.35%