Does Cutbot cut it?

Tell us which Cutbot services you’d like to try out and we’ll be back in touch to set up a free trial for you. We’ll also be happy to meet up or chat through how to get the most out of that trial account. Discounts are available for charities, small businesses, agencies, and the public sector.
Our online media monitoring scans more than 1.7 million articles a week for you from around the world, from newspapers, magazines and broadcaster websites to blogs and organisations.
Our public affairs monitoring currently covers the Scottish Government and the Scottish Parliament, with Whitehall, Westminster and the other devolved bodies coming soon.







stay informed

Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

YouGov/Times, 5th May 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the South region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by YouGov and published in the Times on 5th May.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑2.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓9.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑5.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓0.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑2.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↓3.02
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓7.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑7.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↑0.8
Green 4.37 %  % ↑4.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑3.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↑0.58
Others 6.43 %  % ↓6.43

Our forecast

South: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 35.91 % 17.21 % 29.69 % 5.88 % 5.94 % 4.80 % 0.57 %
Constituency seats 5 4
Votes 106,429 51,006 87,988 17,428 17,591 14,239 1,678
1st divisor 6 1 5 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 17,738 51,006 17,598 17,428 17,591 14,239 1,678
2nd divisor 6 2 5 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 17,738 25,503 17,598 17,428 17,591 14,239 1,678
3rd divisor 6 3 5 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 17,738 17,002 17,598 17,428 17,591 14,239 1,678
4th divisor 7 3 5 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 15,204 17,002 17,598 17,428 17,591 14,239 1,678
5th divisor 7 3 6 1 1 1 1
5th allocation 15,204 17,002 14,665 17,428 17,591 14,239 1,678
6th divisor 7 3 6 1 2 1 1
6th allocation 15,204 17,002 14,665 17,428 8,796 14,239 1,678
7th divisor 7 3 6 2 2 1 1
7th allocation 15,204 17,002 14,665 8,714 8,796 14,239 1,678
8th divisor 7 4 6 2 2 1 1
8th allocation 15,204 12,752 14,665 8,714 8,796 14,239 1,678
Party Candidate
1 Labour Iain Gray
2 Labour Claudia Beamish
3 SNP Joan McAlpine
4 Conservative Rachael Hamilton
5 Green Sarah Beattie-Smith
6 Liberal Democrat Jim Hume
7 Labour Colin Smyth

Constituencies in South region

Ayr

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
Conservative John Scott 🛋 17,756 ↑4759 48.84 % ↑9.90
SNP Jennifer Dunn 12,567 ↑683 34.57 % ↓1.04
Labour Brian McGinley 5,400 ↓2379 14.85 % ↓8.46
Liberal Democrat Robbie Simpson 💸 630 ↓83 1.73 % ↓0.41
Conservative HOLD Majority: 5,189 Swing: ↑5.47%

Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Jeane Freeman 14,012 ↑762 50.67 % ↑4.51
Labour Carol Mochan 7,406 ↓3263 26.78 % ↓10.39
Conservative Lee Lyons 5,683 ↑1523 20.55 % ↑6.06
Liberal Democrat Dawud Islam 💸 551 ↓73 1.99 % ↓0.18
SNP HOLD Majority: 6,606 Swing: ↑7.45%

Clydesdale

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Aileen Campbell 🛋 15,452 ↑840 53.39 % ↑4.58
Labour Claudia Beamish 📃 🎢 7,217 ↓3179 24.94 % ↓9.79
Conservative Alex Allison 5,426 ↑1454 18.75 % ↑5.48
Liberal Democrat Fraser Grieve 💸 845 ↓112 2.92 % ↓0.28
SNP HOLD Majority: 8,235 Swing: ↑7.18%

Dumfriesshire

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
Conservative Oliver Mundell 12,935 ↑3467 40.65 % ↑10.97
SNP Joan McAlpine 📃 🎢 8,866 ↑482 27.87 % ↑1.58
Labour Elaine Murray 🛋 8,763 ↓3861 27.54 % ↓12.04
Liberal Democrat Richard Brodie 💸 1,253 ↓166 3.94 % ↓0.51
Conservative GAIN from Labour Majority: 4,069 Swing: ↑4.70%

East Lothian

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP DJ Johnston-Smith 13,097 ↑712 42.54 % ↑4.05
Labour Iain Gray 🛋 🎢 8,702 ↓3834 28.26 % ↓10.70
Conservative Rachael Hamilton 🎢 7,301 ↑1957 23.71 % ↑7.10
Liberal Democrat Ettie Spencer 1,688 ↓224 5.48 % ↓0.46
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 4,395 Swing: ↑7.38%

Ettrick, Roxburgh & Berwickshire

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
Conservative John Lamont 🛋 17,669 ↑4736 54.90 % ↑10.02
SNP Paul Wheelhouse 📃 8,036 ↑437 24.97 % ↓1.40
Liberal Democrat Jim Hume 📃 🎢 4,406 ↓584 13.69 % ↓3.63
Labour Barrie Cunning 2,073 ↓913 6.44 % ↓3.92
Conservative HOLD Majority: 9,633 Swing: ↑5.71%

Galloway & West Dumfries

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
Conservative Finlay Carson 15,125 ↑4054 47.09 % ↑10.18
SNP Aileen McLeod 📃 10,796 ↑587 33.62 % ↓0.41
Labour Fiona O'Donnell 5,521 ↓2433 17.19 % ↓9.33
Liberal Democrat Andrew Metcalf 💸 674 ↓89 2.10 % ↓0.44
Conservative HOLD Majority: 4,329 Swing: ↑5.29%

Kilmarnock & Irvine Valley

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Willie Coffey 🛋 17,939 ↑975 58.59 % ↑5.34
Labour Dave Meechan 7,616 ↓3355 24.87 % ↓9.57
Conservative Brian Whittle 4,521 ↑1212 14.76 % ↑4.37
Liberal Democrat Rebecca Plenderleith 💸 542 ↓72 1.77 % ↓0.16
SNP HOLD Majority: 10,323 Swing: ↑7.46%

Midlothian South, Tweeddale & Lauderdale

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Christine Grahame 🛋 14,652 ↑797 46.75 % ↑3.24
Liberal Democrat Kris Chapman 7,886 ↓1045 25.16 % ↓2.89
Conservative Michelle Ballantyne 5,114 ↑1371 16.32 % ↑4.56
Labour Fiona Dugdale 3,687 ↓1625 11.77 % ↓4.91
SNP HOLD Majority: 6,766 Swing: ↑3.07%