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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

YouGov/Times, 5th May 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the West region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by YouGov and published in the Times on 5th May.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑2.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓9.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑5.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓0.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑2.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↓3.02
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓7.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑7.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↑0.8
Green 4.37 %  % ↑4.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑3.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↑0.58
Others 6.43 %  % ↓6.43

Our forecast

West: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 39.69 % 24.29 % 21.17 % 3.84 % 6.30 % 3.19 % 1.53 %
Constituency seats 9 — 1 — — — —
Votes 109,256 66,854 58,271 10,561 17,341 8,781 4,217
1st divisor 10 1 2 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 10,926 66,854 29,136 10,561 17,341 8,781 4,217
2nd divisor 10 2 2 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 10,926 33,427 29,136 10,561 17,341 8,781 4,217
3rd divisor 10 3 2 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 10,926 22,285 29,136 10,561 17,341 8,781 4,217
4th divisor 10 3 3 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 10,926 22,285 19,424 10,561 17,341 8,781 4,217
5th divisor 10 4 3 1 1 1 1
5th allocation 10,926 16,714 19,424 10,561 17,341 8,781 4,217
6th divisor 10 4 4 1 1 1 1
6th allocation 10,926 16,714 14,568 10,561 17,341 8,781 4,217
7th divisor 10 4 4 1 2 1 1
7th allocation 10,926 16,714 14,568 10,561 8,671 8,781 4,217
8th divisor 10 5 4 1 2 1 1
8th allocation 10,926 13,371 14,568 10,561 8,671 8,781 4,217
Party Candidate
1 Labour Jackie Baillie
2 Labour Neil Bibby
3 Conservative Jamie Greene
4 Labour Mary Fee
5 Conservative Maurice Golden
6 Green Ross Greer
7 Labour Ken Macintosh

Constituencies in West region

Clydebank & Milngavie

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Gil Paterson 🛋 12,984 ↑706 49.29 % ↑6.01
Labour Gail Casey 8,027 ↓3537 30.47 % ↓10.29
Conservative Maurice Golden 🎢 3,768 ↑1010 14.30 % ↑4.58
Liberal Democrat Frank Bowles 1,562 ↓207 5.93 % ↓0.31
SNP HOLD Majority: 4,957 Swing: ↑8.15%

Cunninghame North

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Kenneth Gibson 🛋 16,432 ↑893 56.74 % ↑4.13
Labour Johanna Baxter 6,540 ↓2882 22.59 % ↓9.31
Conservative Jamie Greene 🎢 5,508 ↑1476 19.02 % ↑5.37
Liberal Democrat Charity Pierce 💸 479 ↓64 1.66 % ↓0.18
SNP HOLD Majority: 9,892 Swing: ↑6.72%

Cunninghame South

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Ruth Maguire 11,625 ↑632 56.25 % ↑6.41
Labour Joe Cullinane 6,001 ↓2644 29.04 % ↓10.16
Conservative William McClure 2,556 ↑685 12.37 % ↑3.89
Liberal Democrat Ruby Kirkwood 💸 483 ↓64 2.34 % ↓0.14
SNP HOLD Majority: 5,624 Swing: ↑8.29%

Dumbarton

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Gail Robertson 11,551 ↑628 45.00 % ↑6.68
Labour Jackie Baillie 🛋 🎢 8,720 ↓3842 33.97 % ↓10.09
Conservative Maurice Corry 4,638 ↑1243 18.07 % ↑6.16
Liberal Democrat Aileen Morton 💸 758 ↓100 2.95 % ↓0.06
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 2,831 Swing: ↑8.38%

Eastwood

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
Conservative Jackson Carlaw 📃 14,550 ↑3900 45.04 % ↑11.68
Labour Ken Macintosh 🛋 🎢 8,790 ↓3872 27.21 % ↓12.45
SNP Stewart Maxwell 📃 8,224 ↑447 25.46 % ↑1.10
Liberal Democrat John Duncan 💸 737 ↓98 2.28 % ↓0.34
Conservative GAIN from Labour Majority: 5,760 Swing: ↑12.06%

Greenock & Inverclyde

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Stuart McMillan 📃 12,559 ↑683 49.03 % ↑6.93
Labour Siobhan McCready 8,599 ↓3788 33.57 % ↓10.34
Conservative Graeme Brooks 2,747 ↑736 10.73 % ↑3.60
Liberal Democrat John Watson 1,708 ↓226 6.67 % ↓0.19
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 3,960 Swing: ↑8.63%

Paisley

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP George Adam 🛋 11,540 ↑627 48.98 % ↑6.33
Labour Neil Bibby 📃 🎢 7,403 ↓3262 31.42 % ↓10.26
Conservative Paul Masterton 3,045 ↑816 12.92 % ↑4.21
Liberal Democrat Eileen McCartin 1,574 ↓209 6.68 % ↓0.29
SNP HOLD Majority: 4,137 Swing: ↑8.29%

Renfrewshire North & West

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Derek Mackay 12,172 ↑662 44.98 % ↑3.12
Conservative David Wilson 7,499 ↑2010 27.71 % ↑7.75
Labour Mary Fee 📃 🎢 6,904 ↓3042 25.51 % ↓10.66
Liberal Democrat Rod Ackland 💸 486 ↓64 1.79 % ↓0.21
SNP HOLD Majority: 4,673 Swing: ↓2.31%

Renfrewshire South

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Tom Arthur 10,951 ↑595 44.64 % ↑6.15
Labour Paul O'Kane 8,978 ↓3955 36.59 % ↓11.47
Conservative Ann Leblond 3,985 ↑1068 16.24 % ↑5.40
Liberal Democrat Tristan Gray 💸 620 ↓82 2.53 % ↓0.08
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 1,973 Swing: ↑8.81%

Strathkelvin & Bearsden

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Rona Mackay 15,078 ↑820 46.99 % ↑4.75
Labour Margaret McCarthy 8,647 ↓3809 26.95 % ↓9.95
Conservative Andrew Polson 6,063 ↑1625 18.90 % ↑5.75
Liberal Democrat Katy Gordon 2,296 ↓304 7.16 % ↓0.54
SNP HOLD Majority: 6,431 Swing: ↑7.35%