Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster
YouGov/Times, 5th May 2016
These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the West region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by YouGov and published in the Times on 5th May.
There’s more information about how we make this work here.
Our forecast
West: full results
SNP | Labour | Conservative | Lib Dem | Green | UKIP | RISE | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Vote share | 39.69 % | 24.29 % | 21.17 % | 3.84 % | 6.30 % | 3.19 % | 1.53 % |
Constituency seats | 9 | — | 1 | — | — | — | — |
Votes | 109,256 | 66,854 | 58,271 | 10,561 | 17,341 | 8,781 | 4,217 |
1st divisor | 10 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
1st allocation | 10,926 | 66,854 | 29,136 | 10,561 | 17,341 | 8,781 | 4,217 |
2nd divisor | 10 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
2nd allocation | 10,926 | 33,427 | 29,136 | 10,561 | 17,341 | 8,781 | 4,217 |
3rd divisor | 10 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
3rd allocation | 10,926 | 22,285 | 29,136 | 10,561 | 17,341 | 8,781 | 4,217 |
4th divisor | 10 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
4th allocation | 10,926 | 22,285 | 19,424 | 10,561 | 17,341 | 8,781 | 4,217 |
5th divisor | 10 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
5th allocation | 10,926 | 16,714 | 19,424 | 10,561 | 17,341 | 8,781 | 4,217 |
6th divisor | 10 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
6th allocation | 10,926 | 16,714 | 14,568 | 10,561 | 17,341 | 8,781 | 4,217 |
7th divisor | 10 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
7th allocation | 10,926 | 16,714 | 14,568 | 10,561 | 8,671 | 8,781 | 4,217 |
8th divisor | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
8th allocation | 10,926 | 13,371 | 14,568 | 10,561 | 8,671 | 8,781 | 4,217 |
Party | Candidate | |
---|---|---|
1 | Labour | Jackie Baillie |
2 | Labour | Neil Bibby |
3 | Conservative | Jamie Greene |
4 | Labour | Mary Fee |
5 | Conservative | Maurice Golden |
6 | Green | Ross Greer |
7 | Labour | Ken Macintosh |
Constituencies in West region
Clydebank & Milngavie
Party | Candidate | Votes | Change | Share | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
SNP | Gil Paterson 🛋 | 12,984 | ↑706 | 49.29 % | ↑6.01 |
Labour | Gail Casey | 8,027 | ↓3537 | 30.47 % | ↓10.29 |
Conservative | Maurice Golden 🎢 | 3,768 | ↑1010 | 14.30 % | ↑4.58 |
Liberal Democrat | Frank Bowles | 1,562 | ↓207 | 5.93 % | ↓0.31 |
SNP HOLD | Majority: | 4,957 | Swing: | ↑8.15% |
Cunninghame North
Party | Candidate | Votes | Change | Share | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
SNP | Kenneth Gibson 🛋 | 16,432 | ↑893 | 56.74 % | ↑4.13 |
Labour | Johanna Baxter | 6,540 | ↓2882 | 22.59 % | ↓9.31 |
Conservative | Jamie Greene 🎢 | 5,508 | ↑1476 | 19.02 % | ↑5.37 |
Liberal Democrat | Charity Pierce 💸 | 479 | ↓64 | 1.66 % | ↓0.18 |
SNP HOLD | Majority: | 9,892 | Swing: | ↑6.72% |
Cunninghame South
Party | Candidate | Votes | Change | Share | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
SNP | Ruth Maguire | 11,625 | ↑632 | 56.25 % | ↑6.41 |
Labour | Joe Cullinane | 6,001 | ↓2644 | 29.04 % | ↓10.16 |
Conservative | William McClure | 2,556 | ↑685 | 12.37 % | ↑3.89 |
Liberal Democrat | Ruby Kirkwood 💸 | 483 | ↓64 | 2.34 % | ↓0.14 |
SNP HOLD | Majority: | 5,624 | Swing: | ↑8.29% |
Dumbarton
Party | Candidate | Votes | Change | Share | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
SNP | Gail Robertson | 11,551 | ↑628 | 45.00 % | ↑6.68 |
Labour | Jackie Baillie 🛋 🎢 | 8,720 | ↓3842 | 33.97 % | ↓10.09 |
Conservative | Maurice Corry | 4,638 | ↑1243 | 18.07 % | ↑6.16 |
Liberal Democrat | Aileen Morton 💸 | 758 | ↓100 | 2.95 % | ↓0.06 |
SNP GAIN from Labour | Majority: | 2,831 | Swing: | ↑8.38% |
Eastwood
Party | Candidate | Votes | Change | Share | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Conservative | Jackson Carlaw 📃 | 14,550 | ↑3900 | 45.04 % | ↑11.68 |
Labour | Ken Macintosh 🛋 🎢 | 8,790 | ↓3872 | 27.21 % | ↓12.45 |
SNP | Stewart Maxwell 📃 | 8,224 | ↑447 | 25.46 % | ↑1.10 |
Liberal Democrat | John Duncan 💸 | 737 | ↓98 | 2.28 % | ↓0.34 |
Conservative GAIN from Labour | Majority: | 5,760 | Swing: | ↑12.06% |
Greenock & Inverclyde
Party | Candidate | Votes | Change | Share | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
SNP | Stuart McMillan 📃 | 12,559 | ↑683 | 49.03 % | ↑6.93 |
Labour | Siobhan McCready | 8,599 | ↓3788 | 33.57 % | ↓10.34 |
Conservative | Graeme Brooks | 2,747 | ↑736 | 10.73 % | ↑3.60 |
Liberal Democrat | John Watson | 1,708 | ↓226 | 6.67 % | ↓0.19 |
SNP GAIN from Labour | Majority: | 3,960 | Swing: | ↑8.63% |
Paisley
Party | Candidate | Votes | Change | Share | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
SNP | George Adam 🛋 | 11,540 | ↑627 | 48.98 % | ↑6.33 |
Labour | Neil Bibby 📃 🎢 | 7,403 | ↓3262 | 31.42 % | ↓10.26 |
Conservative | Paul Masterton | 3,045 | ↑816 | 12.92 % | ↑4.21 |
Liberal Democrat | Eileen McCartin | 1,574 | ↓209 | 6.68 % | ↓0.29 |
SNP HOLD | Majority: | 4,137 | Swing: | ↑8.29% |
Renfrewshire North & West
Party | Candidate | Votes | Change | Share | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
SNP | Derek Mackay | 12,172 | ↑662 | 44.98 % | ↑3.12 |
Conservative | David Wilson | 7,499 | ↑2010 | 27.71 % | ↑7.75 |
Labour | Mary Fee 📃 🎢 | 6,904 | ↓3042 | 25.51 % | ↓10.66 |
Liberal Democrat | Rod Ackland 💸 | 486 | ↓64 | 1.79 % | ↓0.21 |
SNP HOLD | Majority: | 4,673 | Swing: | ↓2.31% |
Renfrewshire South
Party | Candidate | Votes | Change | Share | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
SNP | Tom Arthur | 10,951 | ↑595 | 44.64 % | ↑6.15 |
Labour | Paul O'Kane | 8,978 | ↓3955 | 36.59 % | ↓11.47 |
Conservative | Ann Leblond | 3,985 | ↑1068 | 16.24 % | ↑5.40 |
Liberal Democrat | Tristan Gray 💸 | 620 | ↓82 | 2.53 % | ↓0.08 |
SNP GAIN from Labour | Majority: | 1,973 | Swing: | ↑8.81% |
Strathkelvin & Bearsden
Party | Candidate | Votes | Change | Share | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
SNP | Rona Mackay | 15,078 | ↑820 | 46.99 % | ↑4.75 |
Labour | Margaret McCarthy | 8,647 | ↓3809 | 26.95 % | ↓9.95 |
Conservative | Andrew Polson | 6,063 | ↑1625 | 18.90 % | ↑5.75 |
Liberal Democrat | Katy Gordon | 2,296 | ↓304 | 7.16 % | ↓0.54 |
SNP HOLD | Majority: | 6,431 | Swing: | ↑7.35% |